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E. coli

IFSAC Releases Foodborne Illness Source Attribution Estimates for 2021

Laurie Post · January 10, 2024 ·

The model estimated percentage of foodborne Salmonella, Escherichia coli O157, and Listeria
monocytogenes illnesses in 2021 attributed to each of 17 food source categories was recently released by the Interagency Food Safety Analytics Collaboration (IFSAC) made up of members from CDC, FDA, and USDA-FSIS.

The IFSAC group was established in 2011 to improve coordination of federal food safety analytic efforts and address priorities for food safety data collection, analysis, and use. IFSAC analyzes foodborne illness outbreak data for priority pathogens and specific foods and food categories responsible for foodborne illnesses in the United States. The data are analyzed by calendar
year and released in annual reports as part of ongoing efforts to understand sources of foodborne illness in the United States. The CDC estimates that together these priority pathogens — Salmonella, E. coli O157, Campylobacter, and L. monocytogenes — cause nearly two million cases of foodborne illnesses in the U.S. each year.

Foodborne illness source attribution estimates were generated from surveillance data collected between 1998 through 2021. The dataset included 1,322 outbreaks in which the confirmed or suspected implicated food or foods could be assigned to a single food category: 987 caused or suspected to be caused by Salmonella, 275 by E. coli O157, and 60 by L. monocytogenes. These include 46 outbreaks caused by
multiple serotypes of Salmonella. IFSAC assessed which categories of foods were most responsible for Salmonella, E. coli O157, and L. monocytogenes infections. These pathogens were chosen because of the frequency or severity of the illnesses they cause, and because targeted interventions can have a major impact in reducing them. The implicated foods were divided into 17 categories for the analysis. The method used for estimation gave the greatest weight to the most recent five years of outbreak data (2016–2020). The top food categories associated with each pathogen are detailed below.

For Salmonella, over 75% of illnesses were attributed to seven food categories including chicken, fruits, pork, seeded vegetables (such as tomatoes), other produce (such nuts), beef, and turkey. Estimated Salmonella illnesses were more evenly distributed across food categories than illnesses from E. coli O157, and L. monocytogenes.

Over 80% of E. coli O157 illnesses were attributed to vegetable row crops, such as leafy greens (lettuce, spinach), celeries, broccoli, and beef. Vegetable row crops had a significantly higher estimated attribution percentage than all other categories followed by beef.

For L. monocytogenes, over 75% of illnesses were attributed to dairy (fluid milk, hard and soft cheese), fruits (melons, apples, cherries, berries, mangoes, avocados), and vegetable row crops. However, the small total number of outbreaks (60) in the data set caused this estimate to be less reliable than estimates for the other pathogens.


The attribution of Salmonella illnesses to multiple food categories suggests that multiple types of
interventions are required to reduce illnesses from these pathogens. In contrast, the majority of E. coli O157 illnesses were attributed to two food categories suggesting that interventions for E. coli O157 focusing on these two food categories may be most effective in reducing illnesses. Most
L. monocytogenes illnesses were attributed to three food categories implicated in outbreaks in recent years.


Campylobacter attribution estimates were not provided. This was due to concerns about the limitations of using outbreak data that attributes Campylobacter illnesses to foods that are not routinely consumed by the general public. For example, 90% of dairy outbreaks involved raw milk and 55% of chicken outbreaks involved chicken livers, neither of which are readily consumed by the general public. As such, IFSAC analysts are developing other methods to estimate the sources of Campylobacter infection in future publications.

The authors advise that the estimates provided should not be interpreted as suggesting that all foods in a category are equally likely to transmit pathogens and comparisons over years can be skewed by a limited number of outbreaks. These results should be used with other scientific data for decision making. Overall, the attribution estimates can help inform efforts to prioritize food safety initiatives, interventions, and policies for reducing foodborne illnesses. The estimates also allow stakeholders (i.e. scientists; federal, state, and local policy-makers; the food industry; consumer advocacy groups; and the public) to assess whether prevention-oriented measures are working at intended.

IAFP 2023 – Symposium Discusses Establishing Microbiological Performance Standards for Food Safety

Ryan Maus · August 2, 2023 ·

A symposium at IAFP 2023 (S36), “Establishing Microbiological Performance Standards for Food Safety” discussed how industry establishes performance standards for a broad category of food then validates them to meet regulatory requirements. Performance standards are the specific pathogen reduction levels that must be attained during processing to ensure that proper food safety has been achieved. These can be established based on current available scientific literature, scientific studies performed by the company, regulatory requirements, or by using
risk-based pathogen modeling. Validation then demonstrates that the performance standard can be met during routine processing of food.

Stephanie Nguyen, Principal Microbiologist at ConAgra Foods, discussed considerations for designing performance standards for ready-to-eat (RTE) meat and plant proteins, canned foods, and frozen vegetables. For cell cultured meat, FDA regulates the cell collection, banking, growth and differentiation of the cells, then oversight is transitioned to USDA-FSIS at the harvesting stage. These products need to meet USDA pathogen log reductions set forth for meat products from which the original cells originated from (i.e. FSIS Appendix A). Plant based protein products

should attain a minimum 5-log pathogen reduction, the performance standard generally considered acceptable for FDA regulated products in the absence of other readily available performance standards. Performance standards for low acid canned foods are outlined in 21 CFR Part 113 and consist of applying a 12-log reduction in spores while acidified canned food guidance is outlined in 21 CFR part 114. Frozen vegetables are unique in that they are non RTE, therefore validated cooking instructions can provide the consumer necessary requirements to attain a 5-log reduction in pathogen hazards.

Rico Suhalim, Process Authority at PepsiCo, discussed considerations for designing performance standards for juices, sweet and salty snacks, including low-water activity (aw) foods. For acidified juices, HACCP guidance is available from FDA. Thermal processing to meet a minimum 5-log pathogen reduction for acidified foods pH 4.1–4.6 is described by Breidt et al., 2014. For low aw snacks, challenge studies and process validations are generally conducted to meet a 5-log pathogen reduction. It is important to control microbial load with incoming raw ingredients and understand that thermal processes designed for one food matrix may not be appropriate for another (i.e. kibble ≠ meat).

Aaron Uesugi, Principal Scientist at Mondelez, discussed considerations for designing performance standards for bakery and confectionery products. Processors should consider whether they are baking or drying to assess microbial end product risks appropriately. Bakery products can generally be validated for a 5-log pathogen reduction. However low moisture raw ingredients placed on top of the raw dough, such as sesame seeds, should be assessed to make sure they also achieve a 5-log pathogen reduction during the baking process. It is also important to control microbial hazards that may be introduced post process. For example, chocolate can’t be heated to reduce Salmonella risk, roasting the cocoa bean is the only 5- log pathogen kill step, thus sanitation preventive controls verified by an environmental monitoring program are critical to the production of safe product.

A recording of the symposium is available from IAFP and a 2022 publication by one of the presenters provides more information on this topic. Deibel Laboratories has process authorities available to design and conduct challenge studies and validations to meet regulatory safety requirements for your food products.

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